Some more news and updates on the elections and stories that could affect the elections:
In Italy, which will start its 2 day long poll today, Berlusconi has been caught up in yet another scandal in the media, with pictures of naked women in his villa (and a naked man who may or may not be Topolanek, the leader of the Czech ODS party). The pictures were published by El Pais and are banned from appearing in the press in Italy due to being a breach of privacy. I doubt the pictures, or rumours of pictures, will have much effect on Berlusconi's EPP-aligned right-wing party in the elections - none of the other scandals have (including divorce proceedings).
In France, there's been a big clash between Danny the Red and the leader of ELDR aligned MoDem, Francois Bayrou, on French television. Daniel Cohen-Bendit viciously slammed Bayrou as a leader and presidential candidate, while Bayrou countered by raising old allegations of pedophilia against the former '68 student leader. I wonder how much of an impact this will have on the Greens and MoDem in France - Sarkozy's UMP are expected to comfortably win a good number of votes, with the Socialists behind due to their disarray. A new communist group is doing well in the polls, perhaps to the socialists' expense, but it means that MoDem and the Greens could be fighting for third to fifth place. Perhaps this outburst will damage the chances of either reaching third.
MoDem has also declared themselves against Barroso's bid for a second term.
The Commission is once again annoyed with the Netherlands for producing preliminary results before the rest of the member states have voted. There have been some indications that the Commission could actually do something about it and perhaps even refer it to the ECJ. However, the lack of a truely pan-European campaign means that the Dutch results are unlikely to have much of an impact on the rest of the voting.
Analysis over the preliminary result is already taking place - especially on what the surge in support for the right wing PVV actually means.
RTÉ predicts that there will be a healthy turnout in Ireland - around 60%, and perhaps higher than the last local and European elections due to the economic crisis (then also 60%). On Northern Ireland, RTÉ reports that there was a 42.8% turnout (a drop of around 9% from the last European election), and speculates that de Brún will top the poll with a big lead, making Sinn Féin the "biggest party in any election" - not that it matters in this election. The DUP could have been hit hard (they've not exactly run a good campaign, with a candidate who was frankly embarrassing at times). I suspect that the extent of the vote-splitting with have a lot to do with how Diane Dodds has gone down with DUP voters.
Showing posts with label Netherlands. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Netherlands. Show all posts
Saturday, 6 June 2009
Friday, 5 June 2009
European Elections 2009: First day of polling over
The first day of voting in the European elections is over - the polls have closed in the UK and the Netherlands, with low turnout still apparent.
The Dutch turnout was around 40% according to France 24 (4/6/2009), which would be up a percentage point from 2004 - hardly spectacular. It would be interesting to know how much of the EP's voter turnout campaign was spent in the Netherlands. I doubt the campaign had much impact anywhere.
Preliminary results have started coming out of the Netherlands too - even if it turns out not to be a strict breach in the rules, it is certainly a breach in the spirit of the election rule that no results would be revealed until all countries have voted. Reports say that Geert Wilders party, the PVV, will return the second largest Dutch contingent to the EP at 4 seats, while the senior ruling party (the Christian Democratic Appeal party/EPP) will remain the largest contingent despite losses at 5 seats. The PES-aligned PvdA should get 4 seats (down from 7).
Based on preliminary results (2004 seats in brackets) [Change in square brackets]:
EPP - 5 (7) [-2]
PES - 4 (7) [-3]
ELDR - 6 (5) [+1]
European Greens - 2 (2) [0]
GUE-NGL - 2 (2) [0]
InDem - 2 (2) [0]
Non-Aligned - 4 (0) [+4]
The swing is strongest in the direction of the non-aligned PVV, with a smaller movement towards the liberal ELDR group (two Dutch parties are members of ELDR, with one losing a seat and the other gaining two, so there may be voter movement within the ELDR group parties). The PvdA, currently in coalition with the Christian Democratic Appeal) was clearly the hardest hit.
In the UK the orthodoxy is that the main parties will be hit hard due to the expenses scandal. The most interesting aspects of the votes, when they're released, will be (1) how well the minor parties did - and which ones, and (2) how well the Conservative and LibDems did compared to Labour. Turnout-wise, the Times has put it at around 30% (via Jon Worth).
EP-wise the elections in the UK will likely lead to PES losses, a UEN/EC gain (though this can only be compared to the Tory delegation to the EPP-ED group in 2004-2009 since their new splinter group won't be formed until this term) and either no change for ELDR, or a slight gain.
The UKIP result will probably depend on how well they've managed to capitalise on voter discontent compared to the BNP and the Greens. I think that their vote will remain quite stable with perhaps a small increase. UKIP have complained that their chances being damaged by how the ballots were folded.
In the meantime, we can amuse ourselves with the Council election results for England, which will probably give an indication of the European results (since both are being treated as a referendum of the government anyway). Currently the results stand at:
(Seats with [Change in square brackets])
Labour - 16 [-8]
Conservatives - 17 [+4]
Liberal Democrats - 36 [+4]
Others - 1 [0]
Though obviously hardly any vote have been counted yet and it looks like a LibDem council may have been the first one to have been counted since only the LibDems have been confirmed to have won a council (Bristol), according to the BBC's council election counter. Still, a better picture should emerge later.
In Northern Ireland, turnout is going to drop as well, from around 51.7% last time to between 38-45%. Over at Slugger O'Toole they've been gathering the turnout data from polling stations around Northern Ireland. (See here and on the backup site here).
Of course, it's not just overall turnout that will matter in NI, but what sections of the community turned out and in what strength. Turnout among middle class nationalists and unionists will boost moderate parties and there could be some cross-community transfers. Turnout among working class nationalist and unionist areas generally favours Sinn Féin/DUP/TUV, with transfers more limited to intra-community parties.
A lower turnout could help Jim Allister (TUV), who, as a party to the right of the DUP, may be able to rely on a more hardcore support base. There may also be a chance that the unionist vote is split enough for Alban Maginness (SDLP) to win the third seat, though it's likely that Jim Nicholson (UUP/Conservatives) will retain the third seat.
[Side note: Frank Schnittger has written a good article on the tribalism of NI politics on Th!nk About It here].
The balance of turnout between the communities and the general transfer trends will be poured over, but it will have to wait until Monday, when the votes will actually be counted.
Today (June 5th) voting will begin in Ireland and for the first day in the Czech Republic.
The Dutch turnout was around 40% according to France 24 (4/6/2009), which would be up a percentage point from 2004 - hardly spectacular. It would be interesting to know how much of the EP's voter turnout campaign was spent in the Netherlands. I doubt the campaign had much impact anywhere.
Preliminary results have started coming out of the Netherlands too - even if it turns out not to be a strict breach in the rules, it is certainly a breach in the spirit of the election rule that no results would be revealed until all countries have voted. Reports say that Geert Wilders party, the PVV, will return the second largest Dutch contingent to the EP at 4 seats, while the senior ruling party (the Christian Democratic Appeal party/EPP) will remain the largest contingent despite losses at 5 seats. The PES-aligned PvdA should get 4 seats (down from 7).
Based on preliminary results (2004 seats in brackets) [Change in square brackets]:
EPP - 5 (7) [-2]
PES - 4 (7) [-3]
ELDR - 6 (5) [+1]
European Greens - 2 (2) [0]
GUE-NGL - 2 (2) [0]
InDem - 2 (2) [0]
Non-Aligned - 4 (0) [+4]
The swing is strongest in the direction of the non-aligned PVV, with a smaller movement towards the liberal ELDR group (two Dutch parties are members of ELDR, with one losing a seat and the other gaining two, so there may be voter movement within the ELDR group parties). The PvdA, currently in coalition with the Christian Democratic Appeal) was clearly the hardest hit.
In the UK the orthodoxy is that the main parties will be hit hard due to the expenses scandal. The most interesting aspects of the votes, when they're released, will be (1) how well the minor parties did - and which ones, and (2) how well the Conservative and LibDems did compared to Labour. Turnout-wise, the Times has put it at around 30% (via Jon Worth).
EP-wise the elections in the UK will likely lead to PES losses, a UEN/EC gain (though this can only be compared to the Tory delegation to the EPP-ED group in 2004-2009 since their new splinter group won't be formed until this term) and either no change for ELDR, or a slight gain.
The UKIP result will probably depend on how well they've managed to capitalise on voter discontent compared to the BNP and the Greens. I think that their vote will remain quite stable with perhaps a small increase. UKIP have complained that their chances being damaged by how the ballots were folded.
In the meantime, we can amuse ourselves with the Council election results for England, which will probably give an indication of the European results (since both are being treated as a referendum of the government anyway). Currently the results stand at:
(Seats with [Change in square brackets])
Labour - 16 [-8]
Conservatives - 17 [+4]
Liberal Democrats - 36 [+4]
Others - 1 [0]
Though obviously hardly any vote have been counted yet and it looks like a LibDem council may have been the first one to have been counted since only the LibDems have been confirmed to have won a council (Bristol), according to the BBC's council election counter. Still, a better picture should emerge later.
In Northern Ireland, turnout is going to drop as well, from around 51.7% last time to between 38-45%. Over at Slugger O'Toole they've been gathering the turnout data from polling stations around Northern Ireland. (See here and on the backup site here).
Of course, it's not just overall turnout that will matter in NI, but what sections of the community turned out and in what strength. Turnout among middle class nationalists and unionists will boost moderate parties and there could be some cross-community transfers. Turnout among working class nationalist and unionist areas generally favours Sinn Féin/DUP/TUV, with transfers more limited to intra-community parties.
A lower turnout could help Jim Allister (TUV), who, as a party to the right of the DUP, may be able to rely on a more hardcore support base. There may also be a chance that the unionist vote is split enough for Alban Maginness (SDLP) to win the third seat, though it's likely that Jim Nicholson (UUP/Conservatives) will retain the third seat.
[Side note: Frank Schnittger has written a good article on the tribalism of NI politics on Th!nk About It here].
The balance of turnout between the communities and the general transfer trends will be poured over, but it will have to wait until Monday, when the votes will actually be counted.
Today (June 5th) voting will begin in Ireland and for the first day in the Czech Republic.
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