Referendum date set: 2nd October 2009

The 28th Amendment of the Constitution (Treaty of Lisbon) Bill 2009 (Initiated draft PDF) has been passed quickly by the Dáil yesterday. The date for the next referendum (in case you missed the title), is the 2nd of October, and the Referendum Commission has already been set up.

The Bill has probably already gained the assent of the Seanad (the Upper House), as it was due to vote on it when I was watching the Oireachtais Report earlier on. A video of the debate in the Dáil hasn't been uploaded on the Oireachtais website yet, but it hardly seemed a stimulating debate from the Report, with the 3 main parties mainly stressing the need to win the confidence of the people in the referendum campaign. Sinn Féin, the only anti-Treaty party in the Dáil, didn't have anything new to say either, from what I've seen. When it comes to Yes campaign unity, I haven't seen anything yet to make me optimistic on this score; some of the outspoken invokers of unity haven't always been great at putting across a good campaign message. Perhaps the new civil society groups will strengthen the coherence and argument of the Yes side this time around.

The Yes side has no excuses this time - it has plenty of ammunition against the arguments of the No campaign from last time around. The legal guarantees form a catch-all argument against various claims, the German Constitutional Court ruling has confirmed that the EU will have no say over the armed forces of the member states, and the Secretary-General of the UN Ban Ki-Moon has recently stated that Ireland's EU peace mission participation is compatible with its UN role (the UN is a key source of legitimacy in any international involvement for Ireland).

On top of this, the most successful anti-Lisbon group, Libertas, has lost its well-known leader Declan Ganley, and the representation of anti-Treaty MEPs from Ireland was halved in the June election (from 2 to 1) with the loss of Kathy Sinnot, the co-leader of the now defunct InDem group. Of course, many of these people and groups will continue to campaign against the Treaty - notably the new Europe of Freedom and Democracy Group will campaign against the treaty, though it hasn't got an EP seat in Ireland. The temptation of Yes campaigners to rubbish them and get caught up in ridiculous claims must be resisted, and they must focus on reasons why people should vote for the Treaty.

Pat Cox for Europe?

A new pro-Lisbon group has been launched in Ireland, calling itself Ireland for Europe, and is lead by former Irish MEP and President of the European Parliament Pat Cox. Cox himself could have much to prove in the Lisbon campaign - he could be a great candidate for the next Commission, given his experience in the European Parliament and of European politics, the perception that he's not heavily partisan in Irish political terms, and the fact that his selection would not cause another by-election for the embattled government. (See the analysis by Honor Mahony in her EUobserver blog).

He would also be a credible enough candidate for a decent Commission post, or any Commission post if Lisbon isn't passed and the number of Commissioners is reduced - though, of course, he'd be in a weaker political position in that scenario. Brian Cowen can hardly afford to send any of his cabinet off to Brussels (not many of whom are seen as credible in Ireland), but there's a good list of other possible candidates by Frank Schnittger.

If the referendum is to be won by the pro-Lisbon side, then it probably has to be won by civil society groups such as Ireland for Europe and Generation Yes - I can't see the government putting across a good, clear argument for, and the pro-Lisbon opposition will probably still complain about the government not involving them enough.

Young, Irish & Pro-Lisbon? Welcome to Generation Yes

A new pro-Lisbon group has launched in Ireland today, and surprisingly it's a youth-orientated group. During the first Lisbon referendum, the age group with the highest percentage of No voters was the 25 to 34 age group.

Which is why it's interesting to see the emergence of a grass-roots, pro-Lisbon organization, which is seemingly willing to really make the case for the Lisbon Treaty:

"Mr Byrne, a member of the Green party, says the campaign is “all just friends of ours” who were frustrated by the failure of politicians to properly explain the treaty the last time or to campaign effectively, so they decided “we’ll do it ourselves”. He noted that they recently started a Facebook page and have more than 800 members. “I think Declan Ganley only has about 100” he says of the Libertas anti-treaty campaigner."

Generation Yes has it's own website, Bebo and Facebook pages, and is on Twitter. On it's website it provides bullet-points on the Lisbon Treaty along with references to the relevant Treaty article for those who want to check things out in detail. I especially like the committment to referencing all points that they make - it will be good to lend the Yes side some authority by campaigning on practical changes rather than just vague benefits. Of course, there is the danger that the debate could get bogged down in too much detail, but I doubt that would happen for very long on the streets (or even on TV debates if they get there).

Its director is the former president of Trinity's student union, Andrew Burn. It is not funded by the Irish Government or the EU, but is looking for donations to help with its campaign, and plans on raising money through events such as table quizzes.

I'm really happy to see a grass-roots pro-Lisbon movement like this come together, and I hope they'll be able to make a great contribution to the debate in Ireland.