Twitter has been a good source of info over the last few hours on turnout and initial polling indications, though health warnings should be attached to any polling info coming out before the confirmed results come out after 9/10pm tonight.
A notable Twitterer for polling info is 27etmoi, who has reported that for Malta the exit polls state: Labour/PES on 57%, with the Nationalist Party/EPP on 40%.
In Cyprus the turnout was down sharply with an absentee rate of 41.12% - a high turnout on an EU-scale, but a sharp drop that's worrying Cypriot politicians. Read Athena Arsalidou's post over at Th!nk About It for good analysis.
In Ireland, the votes are already being counted, with analysis over some very, very patchy exit polls. The results of the first count will be held back until 9pm in Ireland, when voting ends across the EU. Exit polling has indicated a few tight races for third seats (all 4 constituencies are three-seaters) - unsurprisingly Dublin, but also in the North West constituency where Ganley has polled better on the day than he has in opinion polls. The North West constituency is the biggest by area, however, so special care needs to be taken when looking at the very sketchy exit polls.
In the South constituency, FG/EPP could be in with a chance of winning a second seat, though it will be a tough fight with SF/GUE-NGL. Labour/PES's candidate seem unlikely to be in with a chance, according to exit polls. Kathy Sinnot (InDem) could loose her seat (I'll keep my fingers crossed).
Italy is voting for the second day today, but it's already looking like turnout will be down again this year as there was only a turnout of 17% yesterday (down from 20% in 2004).
In other news, it turns out that the naked man pictured in Berlusconi's villa was in fact Topolanek, former Czech PM and leader of the UEN/EC aligned Civic Democrats (ODS).
In Latvia, pro-Russian minority parties seem to have done well, with indications that the Harmony Centre may have topped the poll on 20% (and could elect Alfreds Rubiks, Latvia's leader when it broke away from the USSR, and who's been jailed for attempting to overthrow the democratic government). The European Greens look set to retain their Latvian seat - the For Human Rights in United Latvia is on 13%. The Civic Union is on 19%.
Showing posts with label voting trends. Show all posts
Showing posts with label voting trends. Show all posts
Sunday, 7 June 2009
Saturday, 6 June 2009
European Election 2009: Update (3)
Short update this time (promise).
ELDR is naturally very pleased with it's result in the Netherlands, with an increase of one seat (to a total of 6 seats), which is bigger than the EPP (5) or PES (4) delegations. They've already posted about it on their website here.
The EPP has backed (4th June) the Commission's unemployment strategy - though the PES has no candidate to put forward their own strategy, the support of the EPP for this policy won't have any effect on the outcome of the election.
Polish MEP Jerzy Buzek is going to be the EPP candidate for EP President. The EPP aims to get Buzek elected for the first EP Presidential term.
For those who like to see at least some elements of a transnational campaign, there has been a Danish Liberal MEP, who's been campaigning across Europe (though EuroNews didn't say how many member states he covered). (So that's at least a few seconds of media time on a pan-European campaign...).
Ireland:
Fianna Fáil have suffered at the polls for the local elections, dropping as much as 8% from a low starting point in the last local elections (2004). This is likely to be reflected in the European elections, though with a high quota to win a seat, the only FF seat in real danger is Eoin Ryan's in the Dublin constituency.
Labour and Fine Gael have been the main beneficiaries of the FF loss. Interestingly in the Dublin councils, Sinn Féin haven't done too well, with Labour and more minor left-wing parties (Socialist Party; Worker's Party) attracting the swing votes. There are sketchy reports that Eoin Ryan is on 13.25%, Mary Lou McDonald on 13.1% and Joe Higgins on 13.45%.
Declan Ganley is reported (in a similarly sketchy way) to be doing better than expected, and is putting pressure on independent Marian Harkin. Reports are more accurate on a local election and nation-wide basis however, and counting won't start until 9am on Sunday.
Northern Ireland:
RTÉ has given a break down in turnout across Northern Ireland, and it's interesting to see. The votes will be counted on Monday.
ELDR is naturally very pleased with it's result in the Netherlands, with an increase of one seat (to a total of 6 seats), which is bigger than the EPP (5) or PES (4) delegations. They've already posted about it on their website here.
The EPP has backed (4th June) the Commission's unemployment strategy - though the PES has no candidate to put forward their own strategy, the support of the EPP for this policy won't have any effect on the outcome of the election.
Polish MEP Jerzy Buzek is going to be the EPP candidate for EP President. The EPP aims to get Buzek elected for the first EP Presidential term.
For those who like to see at least some elements of a transnational campaign, there has been a Danish Liberal MEP, who's been campaigning across Europe (though EuroNews didn't say how many member states he covered). (So that's at least a few seconds of media time on a pan-European campaign...).
Ireland:
Fianna Fáil have suffered at the polls for the local elections, dropping as much as 8% from a low starting point in the last local elections (2004). This is likely to be reflected in the European elections, though with a high quota to win a seat, the only FF seat in real danger is Eoin Ryan's in the Dublin constituency.
Labour and Fine Gael have been the main beneficiaries of the FF loss. Interestingly in the Dublin councils, Sinn Féin haven't done too well, with Labour and more minor left-wing parties (Socialist Party; Worker's Party) attracting the swing votes. There are sketchy reports that Eoin Ryan is on 13.25%, Mary Lou McDonald on 13.1% and Joe Higgins on 13.45%.
Declan Ganley is reported (in a similarly sketchy way) to be doing better than expected, and is putting pressure on independent Marian Harkin. Reports are more accurate on a local election and nation-wide basis however, and counting won't start until 9am on Sunday.
Northern Ireland:
RTÉ has given a break down in turnout across Northern Ireland, and it's interesting to see. The votes will be counted on Monday.
Friday, 5 June 2009
European Elections 2009: Polling Day 2
The European elections have opened up in Ireland and for the first day in the Czech Republic.
[Edit: I'll add in a small "contents" for this post, considering it's size].
- Ireland.
- Czech Republic.
- UK.
- Northern Ireland.
Ireland:
In Ireland, where there are local as well as European elections (and 2 by-elections), turnout is looking to be pretty healthy on early indications. Politically, I don't think there's much to add since Wednesday/Thursday and on the news I've commented on before then.
It still looks like 2-3 seats at the most will change hands, with Dublin the closest battle ground - Eoin Ryan (FF/ELDR), Mary Lou McDonald (Sinn Féin/GUE-NGL)and Joe Higgins (Socialist Party/Non-Aligned) have been very close in the polls. It will be interesting to see if the interventions by politicians on possible alliances and how to transfer will have much effect on the third seat race there.
The Irish Independent has an article on 12 key local election battlegrounds, if you are interested.
[[The news has been focused to a certain extent on a Leaving Certificate (A-Level) story, where the English 2 paper was accidentally opened a day early, resulting in the exam being rescheduled for 9.30am on Saturday. Then there was an issue over Jewish students who didn't want to sit the test on the Sabbath (they will now be in isolation in a house over the Sabbath so they can take the test later). The Leaving Cert is always a big story in the Irish media each year with stories on exam pressure, etc. (It is the Isle of Saints and Scholars, after all).]]
Czech Republic:
In the Czech Republic, polls opened today (they will be open tomorrow as well). Here's some summary and news:
The two main parties are of course the ODS (President Klaus' old party and Topolanek's party) from which Topolanek's government was drawn until its collapse. It will form a new group with the UK Conservatives (which could be called the "European Conservatives"). Topolanek isn't exactly Lisbon-friendly, and notably described Obama's economic policy as a "road to hell".
The PES aligned CSSD played a major role in bringing down the government in the first place, which may not have done their image any good with the electorate as the fall of a Czech government during the Czech presidency of the European Council damaged the perceptions of the Czech Republic in the rest of the EU. The CSSD's leader has been the target of an egging campaign recently (see the third story here). I can't see an enthusiastic turnout for his party or indeed overall.
(There's a chance that tensions between the ODS and CSSD could spill over into a legal battle).
The EPP aligned KDU-CSL has just chosen a new leader to improve its image and to improve its electability. The new chairman, Svoboda, signals a possible shift to the left in the centrist party. This party is a minor one however, so I doubt the EPP can expect to gain much here.
President Klaus has had a sharp exchange with French Foreign Minister Koucher since the Czech President declared that the EP elections are "unnecessary".
Post-communist president Havel has spoken out against the smear tactics in the election campaigning (fourth story here). From the news I've read and heard, I'm not expecting European issues to feature much at all, and I'd say the confidence in politicians will be very low as (some) voters go to the polls.
Turnout is not expected to be high, as interest in European issues in the Czech Republic seem to be quite low. European issues just don't seem to be being made visible and clear to voters in this campaign.
UK:
In the UK, local election results are mostly in (as of writing, 30 out of 34 councils have been declared), and they may indicate the shape of the European results (though the European elections may have a higher protest vote against the main parties).
Local Council Seats [Change in square brackets]:
Labour - 159 [+250]
Conservatives - 1330 [+217]
LibDems - 439 [-8]
Others - 159 [+34]
For more detail, see the BBC's website here.
A clear swing to the Conservatives in terms of seats important to note that the LibDems are the only main party to increase their share of the vote, while the Conservative share has fallen more than any other party - though it still leads the LibDems by about 10%. I wonder if who will benefit the most in the European elections - LibDems, Conservatives or UKIP? And if the Greens will make respectable gains.
Government-wise, trouble over the resignation of several cabinet ministers has forced a messy, if limited, reshuffle. Brown is in a weakened, but more secure position now. For some strange reason, Sir Alan Sugar will get a ministry (and a peerage). From a EU point of view, Europe Minister Caroline Flint, who resigned, has been replaced by Glenys Kinnock. Caroline Flint is supposed to have resigned over not being promoted - I wouldn't say that her performance as Europe Minister has been particularly deserving of a promotion however. Not that the cabinet is exactly bursting with talent...
Northern Ireland:
In Northern Ireland the turnout is guesstimated at 45% by BBC Newline, with the unionist candidates seemingly close together - predicted to be within 19-13% of each other. Mick Fealty over at Slugger O'Toole has flagged up some estimations, and there's some O'Toole analysis here. Transfers will be everything, and the turnout in different sections of society could be key to the transfer trends.
[Edit: I'll add in a small "contents" for this post, considering it's size].
- Ireland.
- Czech Republic.
- UK.
- Northern Ireland.
Ireland:
In Ireland, where there are local as well as European elections (and 2 by-elections), turnout is looking to be pretty healthy on early indications. Politically, I don't think there's much to add since Wednesday/Thursday and on the news I've commented on before then.
It still looks like 2-3 seats at the most will change hands, with Dublin the closest battle ground - Eoin Ryan (FF/ELDR), Mary Lou McDonald (Sinn Féin/GUE-NGL)and Joe Higgins (Socialist Party/Non-Aligned) have been very close in the polls. It will be interesting to see if the interventions by politicians on possible alliances and how to transfer will have much effect on the third seat race there.
The Irish Independent has an article on 12 key local election battlegrounds, if you are interested.
[[The news has been focused to a certain extent on a Leaving Certificate (A-Level) story, where the English 2 paper was accidentally opened a day early, resulting in the exam being rescheduled for 9.30am on Saturday. Then there was an issue over Jewish students who didn't want to sit the test on the Sabbath (they will now be in isolation in a house over the Sabbath so they can take the test later). The Leaving Cert is always a big story in the Irish media each year with stories on exam pressure, etc. (It is the Isle of Saints and Scholars, after all).]]
Czech Republic:
In the Czech Republic, polls opened today (they will be open tomorrow as well). Here's some summary and news:
The two main parties are of course the ODS (President Klaus' old party and Topolanek's party) from which Topolanek's government was drawn until its collapse. It will form a new group with the UK Conservatives (which could be called the "European Conservatives"). Topolanek isn't exactly Lisbon-friendly, and notably described Obama's economic policy as a "road to hell".
The PES aligned CSSD played a major role in bringing down the government in the first place, which may not have done their image any good with the electorate as the fall of a Czech government during the Czech presidency of the European Council damaged the perceptions of the Czech Republic in the rest of the EU. The CSSD's leader has been the target of an egging campaign recently (see the third story here). I can't see an enthusiastic turnout for his party or indeed overall.
(There's a chance that tensions between the ODS and CSSD could spill over into a legal battle).
The EPP aligned KDU-CSL has just chosen a new leader to improve its image and to improve its electability. The new chairman, Svoboda, signals a possible shift to the left in the centrist party. This party is a minor one however, so I doubt the EPP can expect to gain much here.
President Klaus has had a sharp exchange with French Foreign Minister Koucher since the Czech President declared that the EP elections are "unnecessary".
Post-communist president Havel has spoken out against the smear tactics in the election campaigning (fourth story here). From the news I've read and heard, I'm not expecting European issues to feature much at all, and I'd say the confidence in politicians will be very low as (some) voters go to the polls.
Turnout is not expected to be high, as interest in European issues in the Czech Republic seem to be quite low. European issues just don't seem to be being made visible and clear to voters in this campaign.
UK:
In the UK, local election results are mostly in (as of writing, 30 out of 34 councils have been declared), and they may indicate the shape of the European results (though the European elections may have a higher protest vote against the main parties).
Local Council Seats [Change in square brackets]:
Labour - 159 [+250]
Conservatives - 1330 [+217]
LibDems - 439 [-8]
Others - 159 [+34]
For more detail, see the BBC's website here.
A clear swing to the Conservatives in terms of seats important to note that the LibDems are the only main party to increase their share of the vote, while the Conservative share has fallen more than any other party - though it still leads the LibDems by about 10%. I wonder if who will benefit the most in the European elections - LibDems, Conservatives or UKIP? And if the Greens will make respectable gains.
Government-wise, trouble over the resignation of several cabinet ministers has forced a messy, if limited, reshuffle. Brown is in a weakened, but more secure position now. For some strange reason, Sir Alan Sugar will get a ministry (and a peerage). From a EU point of view, Europe Minister Caroline Flint, who resigned, has been replaced by Glenys Kinnock. Caroline Flint is supposed to have resigned over not being promoted - I wouldn't say that her performance as Europe Minister has been particularly deserving of a promotion however. Not that the cabinet is exactly bursting with talent...
Northern Ireland:
In Northern Ireland the turnout is guesstimated at 45% by BBC Newline, with the unionist candidates seemingly close together - predicted to be within 19-13% of each other. Mick Fealty over at Slugger O'Toole has flagged up some estimations, and there's some O'Toole analysis here. Transfers will be everything, and the turnout in different sections of society could be key to the transfer trends.
Upturn in Early Voting turnout
The Sofia Echo has reported that the turnout for early voting is up around 1.1% in Finland and 1.77% in Sweden. It's not a big increase, but it may indicate a bigger interest in the elections by the public.
Given that the turnout has probably fallen in the UK, and only risen slightly in the Netherlands, there will probably need to be a bigger turnout elsewhere for the EU average to be raised significantly.
Early voting is over in Finland but it will continue in Sweden until the official polling day of the 7th of June.
Given that the turnout has probably fallen in the UK, and only risen slightly in the Netherlands, there will probably need to be a bigger turnout elsewhere for the EU average to be raised significantly.
Early voting is over in Finland but it will continue in Sweden until the official polling day of the 7th of June.
Friday, 17 April 2009
Northern Ireland and the European Elections
Stephen Spillane has posted a very interesting article on the European elections in Northern Ireland. Crudely put, the gist of it was that with the MEP Jim Allister setting up his own party after breaking away from the DUP means that the unionist vote could be spread out over more candidates. This would mean that the traditional 2 Unionist MEPs and 1 Nationalist MEP balance could be changed (but read his article to get a better sense of this with some handy numbers).
As someone from Northern Ireland, I guess I should have said something about the elections here before, but I have to admit that I haven't found the European elections in NI interesting - there hasn't really been any campaigning yet, though I think the candidates are pretty much selected, and the communal divide means that the poll won't even mean that the result can indicate and shift in political opinion in a way that matters in an EU sense or even in the traditional political sense of left v right. Elections in NI are largely still just the popular method of measuring the political weight of (1) each community in comparison to the other (2) each of the parties strength within their own community.
On the other hand, the election is interesting in that it could show developments in these areas, which I have perhaps been wrong to dismiss as not really that interesting. (Perhaps it's more interesting from the outside since it's different from "normal" politics?).
So I'll try to say something about the European elections in NI with a bit of pan-European perspective. However, I should give some background first.
Basics:
Northern Ireland elects its MEPs by STV, just like constituencies in the Republic, but unlike the D'Hondt list system in the rest of the UK. NI sends 3 MEPs to the EP, and currently they are Bairbre De Brún (Sinn Fein), Jim Nicholson (UUP) and Jim Alister (TUV).
Background - the 5 main parties:
There are 5 main parties in NI (or four, depending on your perspective): the Alliance Party, the Democratic Unionist Party, Sinn Fein, the Social Democratic and Labour Party and the Ulster Unionist Party. 2 Nationalist, 2 Unionist and 1 cross-community. Then there's the Traditional Unionist Voice, which was founded by Jim Allister, a current NI MEP who was elected on the DUP ticket in the last election.
DUP: The hardline unionist party, which has some fundamentalist christian viewpoints (though perhaps I'm confusing that with a lot of the party membership and leadership having those views). Currently the largest party in the NI Assembly, and promotes itself as defending the union with Britain and being able to force nationalists in line with their policies. Generally right wing, but more in the populist and fundamentalist religious sense rather than the classical right-wing economic sense. Is non-aligned within the EP, and is putting forward Diane Dodds (wife of Nigel Dodds, an NI Executive minister for finance). European policies? None, really - rhetoric focuses on ensuring that "Ulster's voice in Europe is a Unionist one", and on keeping Sinn Fein from claiming a propaganda victory of topping the poll. What this means in a practical policy sense I have no idea. ("At all times our priority must be the defeat of Sinn Fein"). The only hint at a European tinge to the language is the need for the agricultural sector in NI to have a strong voice in Europe.
Sinn Fein: The hardline nationalist party (or republican), and the biggest nationalist party in the Assembly. Very left-wing, and has a very effective campaigning machine. It has a website for the EU elections, and probably is the party in NI with the most widely known views on the EU and the Lisbon Treaty due to its involvement in the referendum campaign in the Republic. It has many of the traditional far-left critiques of the EU, and sits with the GUE-NGL in the EP. It is against the current "neo-liberal" version of Europe but is for a "critical but constructive engagement" with Europe. It is Gaullist in the sense it wants a Europe of sovereign states (would this not conflict with their idea of a "democratized UN"?), and it is for a classical neutrality for Ireland. Pro-(Irish)unification, pro-worker's rights, anti-Lisbon. It will be interesting to see if it plays its ideological cards in the North as well as the South or if it plays the communal game (I suspect the latter). Bairbre de Brún is their candidate.
UUP: the moderate unionist party, who have linked up with the Conservatives to portray itself as a pan-UK party (opposed to the DUP, its stronger rival, and Sinn Fein, which is pan-Ireland). They have a European Election selection on their website. The tone has changed to a more Tory-friendly line (which has upset the UUP's more left-wing supporters) - it did once use its alignment with the EPP as a selling point (influence in the EP while the DUP sit to the side without support, etc, etc.), but now points to its conservative links (MEP Jim Nicholson is the Conservative's UK Regional Affairs spokesperson in the EP, their website says). The tone of the UUP seems to be centre-right, pro-business, anti-red tape, anti-euro, anti-Lisbon - so the basic conservative line, really. However, the UUP also speak of the need for NI's agricultural sector to have a voice in Europe - I wonder what their policies are in this area, and if they conflict with the Tories anti-CAP stance? Also, by aligning themselves with the Conservatives, they are open to the same charges of being weak in the EP since they won't be part of the biggest (or second biggest) group anymore. It shouldn't affect them much electorally, though, in the sense that the DUP is in an even weaker group position. However, it could still have an effect, as I'll speculate later. Jim Nicholson is their candidate.
SDLP: Centre-left and very pro-European, they sit with the PES. But no separate page or tab for the European Elections on their website. There is only a policy summery rather than a proper policy document. They have traditional centre-left stances on issues such as workers rights, the importance of social aspects being incorporated into the single market, etc. Their policies seem quite thin except for support for introducing the Euro into NI. This could be a policy brought over from the last election, and it could be quite unpopular as NI has got a big boost from the drop in sterling's value - lots of shoppers crossing the border from the south to shop - especially in Enniskillen and Newry which are, or are in, traditionally nationalist areas. I've no idea who their candidate is.
The Alliance Party is cross community and aligned with the liberals in the EP. They have no chance of winning a seat in the EP, but they are the main opposition party in the Assembly and could attract transfers. They are also pro-Euro.
Euro Elections 2009:
Jim Allister, who has broken away from the DUP to form the even harder hardline Traditional Unionist Voice (he believes that Sinn Fein should be excluded from power sharing). So this election is important for the DUP - they have to show that they still retain the support of the unionist community, and that there aren't enough anti-DUP hardliners to make the TUV viable. I doubt that Allister will retain his seat; I think the question is how much potential he has to split the Unionist vote.
This could also make the the preferences of voters more important - the tendency for voters to express cross block preferences. E.g. the tendency for SDLP voters to list UUP candidates in preference (after SDLP candidates) before Sinn Fein candidates or Alliance candidates - with the thinking being that, since there will be a unionist MEP anyway, it is in the interests of SDLP/UUP supporters to ensure that their moderate block wins out over the more extreme/hardline parties. So how will the UUP's Tory alliance so down with SDLP voters? Will they list the Alliance (or SF) in higher preference to the UUP because of it? SDLP voters tend to be more pro-European - how will the strengthened Eurosceptic line of the UUP go down? Will this affect communal block voting considerations?
So on one level it is interesting to see how the mainstream parties fair and if the hardline parties will do better in the more settled post-St. Andrews Agreement environment. It will also be interesting to see if cross-block strategic voting will be strengthened and will coalition-style thinking begin to enter onto the NI political scene?
You may have noticed that as far as normal politics go, nationalists and unionists are restricted to a certain side of the right-left divide. For those who look forward to more normal politics, NI has a long way to go, and, really, can never fully get there until the constitutional/national question is resolved, or deemed unimportant.
Interesting in one sense, frustrating and restrictive (and predictable) in another.
Nosemonkey has said that he might not vote in the European elections because of the list system in the UK. I prefer the candidate-centred STV approach, yet in some ways the political culture of NI means that my political choices are more restricted.
As someone from Northern Ireland, I guess I should have said something about the elections here before, but I have to admit that I haven't found the European elections in NI interesting - there hasn't really been any campaigning yet, though I think the candidates are pretty much selected, and the communal divide means that the poll won't even mean that the result can indicate and shift in political opinion in a way that matters in an EU sense or even in the traditional political sense of left v right. Elections in NI are largely still just the popular method of measuring the political weight of (1) each community in comparison to the other (2) each of the parties strength within their own community.
On the other hand, the election is interesting in that it could show developments in these areas, which I have perhaps been wrong to dismiss as not really that interesting. (Perhaps it's more interesting from the outside since it's different from "normal" politics?).
So I'll try to say something about the European elections in NI with a bit of pan-European perspective. However, I should give some background first.
Basics:
Northern Ireland elects its MEPs by STV, just like constituencies in the Republic, but unlike the D'Hondt list system in the rest of the UK. NI sends 3 MEPs to the EP, and currently they are Bairbre De Brún (Sinn Fein), Jim Nicholson (UUP) and Jim Alister (TUV).
Background - the 5 main parties:
There are 5 main parties in NI (or four, depending on your perspective): the Alliance Party, the Democratic Unionist Party, Sinn Fein, the Social Democratic and Labour Party and the Ulster Unionist Party. 2 Nationalist, 2 Unionist and 1 cross-community. Then there's the Traditional Unionist Voice, which was founded by Jim Allister, a current NI MEP who was elected on the DUP ticket in the last election.
DUP: The hardline unionist party, which has some fundamentalist christian viewpoints (though perhaps I'm confusing that with a lot of the party membership and leadership having those views). Currently the largest party in the NI Assembly, and promotes itself as defending the union with Britain and being able to force nationalists in line with their policies. Generally right wing, but more in the populist and fundamentalist religious sense rather than the classical right-wing economic sense. Is non-aligned within the EP, and is putting forward Diane Dodds (wife of Nigel Dodds, an NI Executive minister for finance). European policies? None, really - rhetoric focuses on ensuring that "Ulster's voice in Europe is a Unionist one", and on keeping Sinn Fein from claiming a propaganda victory of topping the poll. What this means in a practical policy sense I have no idea. ("At all times our priority must be the defeat of Sinn Fein"). The only hint at a European tinge to the language is the need for the agricultural sector in NI to have a strong voice in Europe.
Sinn Fein: The hardline nationalist party (or republican), and the biggest nationalist party in the Assembly. Very left-wing, and has a very effective campaigning machine. It has a website for the EU elections, and probably is the party in NI with the most widely known views on the EU and the Lisbon Treaty due to its involvement in the referendum campaign in the Republic. It has many of the traditional far-left critiques of the EU, and sits with the GUE-NGL in the EP. It is against the current "neo-liberal" version of Europe but is for a "critical but constructive engagement" with Europe. It is Gaullist in the sense it wants a Europe of sovereign states (would this not conflict with their idea of a "democratized UN"?), and it is for a classical neutrality for Ireland. Pro-(Irish)unification, pro-worker's rights, anti-Lisbon. It will be interesting to see if it plays its ideological cards in the North as well as the South or if it plays the communal game (I suspect the latter). Bairbre de Brún is their candidate.
UUP: the moderate unionist party, who have linked up with the Conservatives to portray itself as a pan-UK party (opposed to the DUP, its stronger rival, and Sinn Fein, which is pan-Ireland). They have a European Election selection on their website. The tone has changed to a more Tory-friendly line (which has upset the UUP's more left-wing supporters) - it did once use its alignment with the EPP as a selling point (influence in the EP while the DUP sit to the side without support, etc, etc.), but now points to its conservative links (MEP Jim Nicholson is the Conservative's UK Regional Affairs spokesperson in the EP, their website says). The tone of the UUP seems to be centre-right, pro-business, anti-red tape, anti-euro, anti-Lisbon - so the basic conservative line, really. However, the UUP also speak of the need for NI's agricultural sector to have a voice in Europe - I wonder what their policies are in this area, and if they conflict with the Tories anti-CAP stance? Also, by aligning themselves with the Conservatives, they are open to the same charges of being weak in the EP since they won't be part of the biggest (or second biggest) group anymore. It shouldn't affect them much electorally, though, in the sense that the DUP is in an even weaker group position. However, it could still have an effect, as I'll speculate later. Jim Nicholson is their candidate.
SDLP: Centre-left and very pro-European, they sit with the PES. But no separate page or tab for the European Elections on their website. There is only a policy summery rather than a proper policy document. They have traditional centre-left stances on issues such as workers rights, the importance of social aspects being incorporated into the single market, etc. Their policies seem quite thin except for support for introducing the Euro into NI. This could be a policy brought over from the last election, and it could be quite unpopular as NI has got a big boost from the drop in sterling's value - lots of shoppers crossing the border from the south to shop - especially in Enniskillen and Newry which are, or are in, traditionally nationalist areas. I've no idea who their candidate is.
The Alliance Party is cross community and aligned with the liberals in the EP. They have no chance of winning a seat in the EP, but they are the main opposition party in the Assembly and could attract transfers. They are also pro-Euro.
Euro Elections 2009:
Jim Allister, who has broken away from the DUP to form the even harder hardline Traditional Unionist Voice (he believes that Sinn Fein should be excluded from power sharing). So this election is important for the DUP - they have to show that they still retain the support of the unionist community, and that there aren't enough anti-DUP hardliners to make the TUV viable. I doubt that Allister will retain his seat; I think the question is how much potential he has to split the Unionist vote.
This could also make the the preferences of voters more important - the tendency for voters to express cross block preferences. E.g. the tendency for SDLP voters to list UUP candidates in preference (after SDLP candidates) before Sinn Fein candidates or Alliance candidates - with the thinking being that, since there will be a unionist MEP anyway, it is in the interests of SDLP/UUP supporters to ensure that their moderate block wins out over the more extreme/hardline parties. So how will the UUP's Tory alliance so down with SDLP voters? Will they list the Alliance (or SF) in higher preference to the UUP because of it? SDLP voters tend to be more pro-European - how will the strengthened Eurosceptic line of the UUP go down? Will this affect communal block voting considerations?
So on one level it is interesting to see how the mainstream parties fair and if the hardline parties will do better in the more settled post-St. Andrews Agreement environment. It will also be interesting to see if cross-block strategic voting will be strengthened and will coalition-style thinking begin to enter onto the NI political scene?
You may have noticed that as far as normal politics go, nationalists and unionists are restricted to a certain side of the right-left divide. For those who look forward to more normal politics, NI has a long way to go, and, really, can never fully get there until the constitutional/national question is resolved, or deemed unimportant.
Interesting in one sense, frustrating and restrictive (and predictable) in another.
Nosemonkey has said that he might not vote in the European elections because of the list system in the UK. I prefer the candidate-centred STV approach, yet in some ways the political culture of NI means that my political choices are more restricted.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)