Sunday 7 June 2009

European Elections 2009: Polling Day 4

There are a lot of member states voting today, and I'm afraid it turns out that I won't be able to cover all the countries as I'd originally hoped (enlargement will make it even harder in the future...). Below are a few countries I had begun on, plus a few stats I've seen floating around the web (well, Twitter mostly).

At this point there's not much point in covering the rest of the countries since the results will be in in a few hours, and I'll only have sporadic control of the computer. I'll try to comment on results. Sorry for the (many) member states that I've left out.


- France
- Slovenia
- Hungry
- Germany
- Austria


Polls opened for the Outre-mer or overseas territories yesterday, and polls open for metropolitian France today. Still not much more to add since the bust-up between Daniel Cohn-Bendit and MoDem leader Francois Bayrou. It looks like the UMP/EPP will do well here with a good poll lead (about 27%) over the socialists (PS/PES) at about 21-2%. MoDem/ELDR are at 11-2%, and Cohn-Bendit's Europe Ecologie (European Greens) is at about 9%.

France 24 has reported that at midday it looks like the turnout may have increased slightly.


I can't claim much knowledge here, but the current government is lead by the Social Democrats, with Zares, the Liberal Democracy of Slovenia, and a pensioner's party. Slovenia has 7 seats in the European Parliament. [The below isn't that well informed].

the Social Democrats (PES) are the biggest party in national parliament and are in danger of losing a seat.

The main opposition party, the Slovenien Democratic Party (EPP-ED), is likely to remain on 2 seats.

Liberal Democracy of Slovenia (ELDR), which was part of the government until 2008, currently has 2 MEPs. They have been in general decline however (judging from national parliament results) and are likely to lose a seat in this election.

New Slovenia - Christian People's Party are EPP-ED-aligned, and are not represented in the Slovene parliament (it went from 9 seats to 0 in the last 2 elections). Despite that, opinion polls (that I've seen) indicate that it has a fairly good chance of winning a seat.

Zares/ELDR from the opinion polls look to have an outside chance of winning a seat. The pensioner's party, Democratic Party of Pensioners of Slovenia, also has an outside chance of winning a seat.


Hungry has 22 seats in the EP. Hungry has been badly hit by the economic crisis and has been bailed out be the IMF. There are concerns that far-right parties could do well here. See the Predict 09 predictions here.

Fidesz (Hungarian Civic Union/EPP) is the main opposition party and is set to do extremely well in the elections, with around 60% in opinion polls. They've 12 MEPs at the moment on a 47.4% share of the vote in 2004. Fellow EPP party, Hungarian Democratic Forum, has a chance of retaining its sole seat.

The Hungarian Social Democrats (PES), currently in a minority government and with 9 MEPs, are likely to come a distant second on around 20%. They had around 34% of the vote last time around.

The Alliance of Free Democrats (ELDR) could lose a seat (currently on 2). The far-right Jobbik could is predicted to win their first seat in these elections.


ARD prediction of CDU/EPP 31%, CSU/EPP 7.5%, SPD/PES 21%, FDP/ELDR 11%, Greens/European Greens 11.5%, Die Linke/GUE-NGL 7.5%. Via 27etmoi.

Turnout in Germany will be a big influence on the EP's legitimacy and on turnout overall.


Figures floating around Twitter:

Social Democrats/PES 24%
Christian Democrats/EPP 30,6%
Martin 18,1%
Freedom Party 12,7%
BZÖ 4,5%

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