Austrian Elections: The Grand Coalition lives on

As the results of the Austrian elections came in yesterday, it was clear that the Social Democrat-led Grand Coalition will live on, if a little battered. The result will come as a relief to the Party of European Socialists, and Werner Faymann who can look forward to continue to lead the Austrian government after having failed to unseat Merkel last week.

Grand Coalitions are practically an Austrian tradition, with the majority of governments consisting of the centre-left SPOe and centre-right OeVP carving up power and ministerial posts between them. (This was a reaction to the turbulent politics of the Inter-War period, when Austria was very ideologically divided). So a Grand Coalition is not really a surprising result.

More notably, the far-right Freedom Party (FPOe) has increased its share of the votes to 21.4%, in an election with asylum as a hot topic. This increase of 3.9% should be since in the context of the other far right party, BZOe, (set up by Joerg Haider splitting away from the FPOe) losing 7.1% of their vote, dropping to 3.6% (the BZOe have tried to become more liberal/libertarian recently). The new Liberal party, NEOS, did slightly better than the BZOe, while the Greens also increased their vote marginally. The biggest winner of the election is probably the businessman Frank Stronach who set up a political party ("Team Stronach") as his personal political vehicle, winning 5.8%. Team Stronach are an economically liberal, Eurosceptic party, though it's not focused on the immigration issue in the same way that the Freedom Party is.

The 4% threshold to enter parliament means that apart from the BZOe, all of these parties will get in. Despite the centre-left lead coalition, the right has grown in Austria, with various strains of populism doing well. Having continuous Grand Coalitions probably doesn't help: without a clearer contest in the centre ground, the political space in opposition is left more open to populist parties.

In the end this election brought even more of what the German election last week brought: continuity.

Choppy waters for the Fiscal Stability Treaty in the Bundestag

BY CC norbert_blech

It's interesting to see the politics of passing the Fiscal Stability Treaty in the German Bundestag over the last few weeks. Angela Merkel's government needs the opposition for the two thirds majority needed to pass the Treaty, and the opposition Social Democrats and Greens are trying to extract concessions on a growth agenda for Europe that echoes some of François Hollande's proposals.

The opposition wants:

- The strengthening of the European Investment Bank.
- Bonds for the indebted countries of the EU (I understand this to mean bonds that cover the debts in excess of the 60% of GDP-limit).
- Better use of the EU structural funds.
- Project bonds.
- A financial transaction tax.

(There is also an issue of how it will affect the Bundesländer, or the states, and local government).

The biggest clash lately has been over the financial transaction tax (FTT). Initially the government said that it would be impossible for an FTT to be brought in before the end of the legislative period, but now the Commission has come out contradicting the German government. The Süddeutsche Zeitung reports that it could be possible to pass a law on FTT by the end of the year, and collect the tax in 2014 (in the next German legislative period). If the FTT is to pass this year, it will be under enhanced cooperation between at least 9 Member States, given that taxation is still subject to the veto and the UK refusal to sign up to an FTT. Die Süddeutsche notes that the finance ministers of Germany, France, Spain, Italy, Greece, Portugal, Finland, Belgium and Austria signed up to the principle of an FTT in February, though obviously there would be a lot of detail to hammer out between them, and there's no guarantee an FTT coalition will look the same when it comes to passing the law.

It's worth noting that the Süddeutsche also reports that the German finance minister, Wolfgang Schäuble, seems to be considering another extra-EU treaty if it would be a faster way of achieving an FTT. What could this mean for the talking point of the month, the Banking Union? If an FTT was seen as a way of financing support of the financial sector without burdening the taxpayer, then it could be dangerous for other Eurozone countries to sit out talks on this FTT if it could be expanded to fit into the Banking Union or be taken as a model for it. Another extra-EU treaty would be a bad direction to go in: the EU provides a procedure for further integration of a group of Member States, and circumventing the EU institutions further poisons the trust in the rules and procedures agreed to by all Member States being respected.

The Fiscal Stability Treaty is part of a piecemeal approach that is rightly open to criticism: it doesn't solve the crisis in itself, and without a comprehensive deal on what a fiscal union will look like, these half-measures will erode confidence in the ability of the Eurozone to get its affairs in order. Hopefully this initiative of the German opposition will help push a more balanced and fairer approach to the Eurozone crisis, but it would be better if the left started cooperating across borders on what it wants to see from a fiscal union.

NI Green Politics

My latest post over at Think2: NI Green Politics. Thanks to the QUB Green Society for letting me sit in on their meeting!

I think it’s fair to say that green politics don’t feature strongly in Northern Ireland’s political culture. Due to the history of the Troubles, the main divide in NI politics is the nationalist-unionist one, and this showed in the articles Stephen Spillane, Frank Schittger and myself wrote about NI in the lead up to the European elections in June (Northern Ireland is a single constituency for the European Parliament under UK law).

But in the European elections, the Green candidate, Steven Agnew did better than ever, with 15,674 votes (I had a small email interview with him at the time of the election). Still a small number, though the numbers are going in the right direction. In the regional Assembly, the Greens have 1 MLA (Member of the legislative Assembly), Brian Wilson, in opposition. This is their first Assembly seat, and it’s one the Greens have high hopes of retaining in the next regional election – and hopes of perhaps even winning a second.

I went along to a meeting of student greens at my university to see how active green politics are at a student and local level.

 

 

Some of the Student Greens at QUB, with co-leaders Lois and Mark on the right

 

Political societies, like most societies in my university, tend not to be very mission-driven, and fall back to being purely social clubs, so it was great to see that the Green Society was quite active in its approach. The society is involved in several campaigns, both on green issues and on other issues, but what particularly stood out for me was how the society was both outward-looking as well as focused on more local issues. One of the more student-related issues was the creation of an environment-focussed committee in the Student Parliament, and a push with the executive of the Student’s Union building to make the Student’s Union building greener. The society also had links with the Green parties in the Republic of Ireland and in Britain, with delegations to party meetings in Ireland, and links with the MEP Caroline Lucas’ campaign for a seat in Westminster in the May general election.

The wider links (again reflected in the pan-European Green stance taken during the European elections) especially appealed to me, but the Green Party in Northern Ireland has quite a mountain to climb in terms of growth: the other party in NI not situated along one side of the nationalist-unionist divide has failed to turn itself into a major political force, despite being the largest opposition party in NI (the top 4 are in a consociational coalition). However, the Green Party may have the potential for a broader appeal given the prominence of the climate change issue. “Being Green” is seen as a somewhat important value in NI now – this was especially apparent when the current finance minister Sammy Wilson caused controversy over his anti-climate change views while he held the environmental portfolio.

Can the Greens build on the acceptance of the dangers of climate change to increase awareness and make more of a political impact? I hope so.

Back Again

I'm back after a short break from blogging (though it seems to be pretty quiet generally due to the summer). So I'll be back blogging again - today or tomorrow, time depending - but for those who are interested in Lisbon II and the Irish blasphemy law:

Lisbon II - Stephen Spillane has been updating us here. Among other things, the Green Party has voted to campaign for a yes, which requires a super-majority of 2/3 of the party. Last time they were just under the 2/3 threshold, and members were free to campaign on whichever side they wanted.

On the blasphemy Act (or the Defamation Act 2009, to give it it's proper title), Dr. Eoin O'Dell of Trinity College Dublin has some brilliant posts on his blog cearta.ie setting out analysis and argument past the traditional free speech arguments you might hear condensed in the media. Read in particular this and this.

In other news, I've been selected to take part in the second round of Th!nk About It! The second round will be focused on climate change and the Copenhagen Conference this winter. I'm looking forward to the launch event in Copenhagen this September - hopefully I can pick up a few things to improve my blogging. I'm particularly interested in how climate change and environmental law is/will be dealt with in Stormont and Brussels, and on how agreement will (might?) be reached at Copenhagen. I can't see Stormont being up to speed on the environment (for a while we had an environment minister [Sammy Wilson] who publicly disagreed with the climate change policy of the Executive and his party, and who blocked climate change public broadcasts from being aired).

European Elections 2009 NI: Steven Agnew

[Contents page, "Asking the Candidates" here].

Steven Agnew of the Greens has replied to my questions. I'd like to thank him for replying and answering my questions despite the little time I've given the candidates to reply before the poll on Thursday. The answers I've got from candidates so far have been very helpful and interesting, and hopefully I'll get more responses. Here's Steven Agnew's reply:



Due to restraints on time I couldn't answer the questions in more detail. For further information go to our website election section:
http://www.greenpartyni.org/candidate.aspx

An important task of the European Parliament is to confirm the next Commission. As an MEP, will you back or oppose a second term for Jose Manuel Barroso and why? If you oppose him, is there an alternative you would support and why?

I would not support a second term for Barroso as I do not believe that his performance stands up to scrutiny as his commission has;

• A passive approach to the economic crisis
• Oversaw reckless deregulation at the cost of social policy
• Neglected climate change and environmental degradation
• Failed to promote democracy and human rights in the EU

I back the European Greens campaign to see the next Commission President directly elected.

The CAP is an important issue, and there seems to be a lot of talk about its reform. What would you like being done differently, and what aspects of CAP would you retain?

Public money must be used for public good and therefore I would like to see CAP reformed to ensure that subsidies are linked to good environmental management and high animal welfare standards. This will ensure that good practice is rewarded and incentivise others to raise their game.

The Common Fisheries Policy has been widely criticised. What would you like to see being done differently, if anything?

The Common Fisheries Policy provides a framework to ensure that we have sustainable fishing industries across Europe. However failure to enforce CFP rules by member states has seen the rules been flouted by some putting at a disadvantage those in compliance. I would like to see better controls introduced.

Financial regulation has become a big issue because of the recession. How do you think the EU should (if at all) regulate the financial services? Do you support the Larosiere report?

We have seen the disastrous consequences of the lack of regulation of financial services. The near collapse of our banking system has shown that we must find a balance between profit maximisation and the needs of wider society which an unregulated market can provide no provision for.

I believe the de Larosiere report points us in the right direction.

What do you think will be the most important issues for you as an MEP?

The Green New Deal must be the blueprint for the tackling of the economic crisis and for moving Europe towards a low carbon future. We must make the shift to renewable energy and end our over reliance on imported fuels. Creating our own energy will ensure that we can end the fluctuation in prices that saw thousands of families driven into fuel poverty over the winter, create jobs in new industries and reduce CO2 emissions. We also require efficient public transport infrastructure across Europe and sustainable waste solutions. Incineration will only add to the problem therefore cannot be part of the solution and that is why I would work to ensure that incineration cannot be used to meet member states’ renewable energy production targets.

Election Mail (Northern Ireland Style)

I've finally got some election literature (not that the writing exactly warrants that description) for Northern Ireland. So far I have something from all of the major (and some not-quite-so-major) parties, except for the UUP/Conservatives' Jim Nicholson. Here's a quick overview for anyone who wants a taste of NI political leafleting (you know who you are):

DUP/No Group (Diane Dodds):

Medium-sized booklet promising "Strong Leadership in Challenging Times". The chief concern is on preventing Sinn Féin from topping the poll and the state of Unionism in general. It is almost entirely composed of one-line long bullet points (European issues are mentioned in 2-3 out of 22 of them on the inside pages). EU-wise the DUP is for the "best deal from Brussels for business, farmers and fishermen" - it doesn't elaborate, but my impression from their campaign so far is that they want less regulation and CFP reform.

Sinn Féin/GUE-NGL (Bairbre de Brún):

Tiny stretched postcard of a leaflet; tagline: "Putting Ireland First". Has "MEP" written beside Bairbre de Brún's name, which I thought wasn't allowed (but that might only apply to election posters). Contains a mere two paragraphs - one English, one in Irish. Talks about delivering for Ireland, supporting various communities (agriculture, business, etc) and mentions the potential of a green economy. No policies outlined or even general stances on policy areas mentioned.

Jim Allister/No Group (Traditional Unionist Voice):

Booklet with the most writing out of the bunch. Tagline: "Experience, Principle, Integrity". Main points are the need for a full time MEP (claiming that 70% of laws originate in the EU), outrage over Sinn Féin being in government (the NI regional government) with the DUP (his former party), and his principles on moral and constitutional issues. Highlights his number of speeches, oral questions and written questions versus the 2 other NI MEPs and the NI MEPs of the previous EP, and his ability in "Opposing Sinn Féin 24/7".

Talks about local government issues, but he does talk about European issues - EU funding (he wants more), farming (wants fewer Brazilian imports), CFP (against), regulation (proposes a "regulation holiday"), traditional family values (for), Euro (against) and the Lisbon Treaty (against). Has quotes from Farage and Hannan praising him.

The Alliance Party/ELDR (Ian Parsley - not connected to the more famous Ian):

Fold-out leaflet; tagline: "Replace the Politics of Fear with the Politics of Hope". Pro-European, but not much that stands out - wants to make Europe closer to its citizens, to make it work for citizens, and is pro-green investment - but no policies. May be what Julien Frisch has yearned for in terms of "European experience" - Parsley has lived in Germany, Spain and England, speaks fluent German and Spanish and he has set up his own business (though it doesn't mention if this business was outside NI).

SDLP/PES (Alban Maginness):

Small fold-out poster; tagline: "When we Win, You Win" - in English, Irish, Polish and Spanish. Highlights his online campaign, which in website terms is on all the usual suspects; though his blog makes a play on the old Guinness ad slogan, calling it: "Maginness is Good for EU". Describes himself as "passionately pro-European", and there are some bullet points, which is pretty much the same sort of stuff as in the other parties, except the anti-CFP and defensive CAP stance of NI in general is gentler in rhetoric. Emphasises the importance of the PES and belonging to one of the big EP groups - and has the PES logo beside the SDLP one (one of only two to have the Group logo on their literature - at least, out of this collection).

Green Party/Greens-EFA (Steven Agnew):

Another fold-out booklet; tagline: "For a New Green Deal". One of the few candidates I have actually met in person, but that was a year ago. Calls for a "Green Industrial Revolution" and claims that 5 million jobs could be created across Europe if there's proper investment in green technology (seems possible) - with 50, 000 of them in NI (which I don't personally find a particularly convincing number). Also highlights its links with its EP Group (one column devoted to it), though the group logo is small and on one of the inside pages.


I have to say that none of the leaflets actually impacted on or changed how I'm planning to vote (at the moment, anyway), but that could be because I'm just interested in politics so I'd already knew the outline of the parties' stances. Does leafleting have much of an impact on your voting intentions?

Poor Poul

It's becoming very hard not to feel sorry for PES leader Poul Nyrup Rasmussen:* unable to run a candidate for the Commission Presidency (which will damage the PES's chances in June), he's been reduced to impotently hinting that he has someone in mind. Meanwhile, the Greens are calling for a Red-Green coalition, with an open door for others to join, and the Liberals whinge from the sidelines that the PES isn't coherent enough or credible enough to put forward a candidate.

At the same time, there's no guarantee that the Liberals will support an anti-Barroso. Even if the PES and Greens-EFA do well enough in June, the coalition needs to be large to stand up to the EPP and the Council. Given the internal party splits in the PES (UK's Labour will do badly in the election, but with Spain and Germany, it makes up the (at least potential) core of PES in the EP), along with the strong left-right differences within the Liberals (contrast the UK's LibDems with Germany's FDP), any coalition must be big and coherent enough to withstand both its internal party splits and to wage a strong campaign against the EPP and the Council. The PES really need a plurality in the EP here, since it's unlikely that they'll be able to succeed against the Council if the Council can point to the EPP as the winners.

Of course, the EPP have some of their own problems, with the UK Conservatives breaking away from them (well, away from the EPP-aligned ED anyway), but this is unlikely to dilute centre-right support for Barroso in the EP.

I wonder if the PES might loose a few seats to the Greens, since in several countries the PES parties are either highly unpopular (UK), or have faced coherence and credibility problems (Germany and France). In Germany, the Greens tend to be the natural allies of the SPD, and their alignment in the run up to the September federal elections may further boost the credibility of the Greens among dissatisfied SPD voters who don't want to vote for the hard left. I doubt the Green's calls for EP coalition will boost their credibility much in the public's mind without an actual candidate to rally behind, but it may have a small effect. (On the other hand, a loss for the Greens has been predicted).

The PES are clinging on to the outside chance of a plurality or coalition, and have hit out against suggestions of appointing the new Commission President quickly after the new EP convenes. Nevertheless, we'll probably be left with the pitiful outcome of PES appeals for Barroso to become more socialist.



*(As ever, not to be confused with the innumerable other Rasmussens (ok, 2 others). Which makes a nice change for me, since Irish politicians with the same name are 99% likely to be related).

Dublin EP Elections on TV3's Nightly News

Vincent Browne hosted a debate between some of the candidates in the race for 3 Dublin EP seats. (People Korp's site flagged this up).

Only one of them was a sitting MEP (Proinsias de Rossa - Labour/PES), but the programme was interesting none the less, with a Green candidate (and current Sentator - one of eleven who had been appointed by Bertie when he was still Taoiseach) Deirdre de Burca and a former Green Patrica McKenna (who lost her EP seat in the last election and campaign against the Lisbon Treaty in the referendum) arguing over their independence from the government should they win a seat. Caroline Simons, the Dublin Libertas candidate was also there, and gave a lamentable performance when Browne tried to pin her down on policy.

The debate raised 3 issues: the independence of MEPs from their parties when they're in government, MEPs expenses, Libertas' lack of policies.

De Burca and McKenna battled over the issue of independence. McKenna has just left the Green Party (she is at odds with the party's decision to go into government with Fianna Fáil) and is standing as an independent, and claims that she will be better placed to press for Ireland to properly implement environmental directives and fight for environmental and social policies when a Green candidate would be pressured into following the government line. De Burca rubbished this, but I think that all national party executives exert pressure on their EP contingent - especially when they're in government. I don't know how the Green party is in this area, but, as Jon Worth has explained, national party executives have divided the PES and effectively wrecked moves to run a socialist candidate for the Commission Presidency.

De Rossa and De Burca also highlighted the importance of political groups within the EP, and De Burca said she encourages people to check out the groups. It's good to hear candidates trying to communicate the politics of the EP, and De Burca deserves credit for calling on voters to support the left leaning parties to ensure an EP that will be strong on Green and social issues. It's not exactly a strong European campaign, but it's good to hear that some candidates are trying to communicate what votes can mean for the make up and policies of the parliament.

Simons was torn to shreds by Browne. It took a lot of waffle and increasingly impaticent interjections from Browne for Simons to give an example of what kind of powers the EU should return to member states - she settled on labelling: she believes it burdens businesses with too much cost. Browne wasn't impressed, and De Rossa easily asserted the value of labelling rules for consumer protection and the free movement of goods. It was a very poor choice by Simons - there are undoubtedly arguments for and against regulation in many areas, but it's a different argument to at what level the power to regulate should be vested.

Later, Simons went on the attack over the actions of the ECJ. She didn't do well here either - after raising the issue, Browne pressed for an example, which she had to admit she hadn't prepared and couldn't think of one off the top of her head. This is very damaging - after all, Simons is supposed to be a solicitor, and I imagine she was choosen as a candidate to lend credibility to Libertas' claims in areas of EU law. Not that's she's been very good on the subject before - as her performance in front of the Sub-Committee for Ireland's Future in Europe shows.

She did a bit better attacking De Rossa over expenses, but the blows didn't really land. De Rossa wasn't great at explaining his position over expenses, but he defused the issue by asserting that he's put information on his expenses on his website (here). It was still quite shocking to find out that he received €300,000 in expenses. It raises a lot of questions of the worth/need for this level of expenses. (The video showing this is the second half here).

Will the European Parliament block Barroso's Plan?

Barroso's plan for €5 million of unspent EU budget funds in energy projects, etc, could be voted down in the EP, Claude Turmes told EurActiv. It was never exactly a brilliant plan, although to be fair to Barroso, he's never claimed to be imaginative or competent enough to come up with one in the first place (See comments).

I don't know how viable or effective the idea of pumping it into the EIB is, but if it can be done, I do like the idea of using it to generate more money to help the member states.

Most of all, I'd like to see more initiative from the EP on this matter - as well as running candidates for Commission President in the elections.

Or am I misguided on the practicality of the Commission being more assertive and bold in its plans during the economic crisis? Is it now institutionally and politically impossible for the Commission to show leadership?

(In other news: the Commission and Irish officials will meet to decide how the Commission can help in the Lisbon debate. Is it hoping that nobody says anything stupid too much to hope for?)

Ireland-EU News Round-up

There have been several Europe-related developments in Ireland recently, so here's what I've noticed over the last few days:

Story 1: The Greens want Ireland to pull out of the EDA, apparently to placate their membership, as the Greens didn't get enough party support to campaign on the pro-Lisbon side in the June Referendum (I think they required 2/3 of party members to vote for a pro-Lisbon campaign strategy). Ireland's membership of the EDA was a stumbling block, it seems (I didn't hear about this at the time, but I may have missed it). Cowen has been reported as wanting some sort of compromise.

The EDA is supposed to make it cheaper for European governments to buy good quality military hardware. If you want to make the argument that it's good for arms dealers, so therefore it's bad, then that's up to you. Personally, I support the EDA - I find it hard to believe that the idea of getting the same defense at a lower cost (or better defense at the same cost) could be a bad thing. Since the Greens seem to be pushing this because they realise that it would be bad for Ireland to pull out of the ESDP, it looks like they just want to pull out of something, just to be seen to be doing something.

Story 2: Libertas are involved in yet more membership shenanigans, with the revelation that they may have offered an eurosceptic Swedish party almost €1 million for its support and some sort of joint platform in the European elections. No response to these allegations on their website yet; can they not get someone to run their website properly or deal with Libertas' online presence if they have as much support as they claim? It will be interesting to see how they respond - I can't see any way they have of turning this into a Brussels conspiracy. (Picked up here and here and here by Peoplekorps (apparently talks about the €1 million did take place...) and reported here by the Irish Times).

Story 3: Well, more of a continuation of one I've already written about. The Liberals in the EP are going to accept Fianna Fáil's application to join their group, and will assist them with money in the second Lisbon referendum if they need it. I'm not too happy with Watson's alarmist comments about the referendum being an in-or-out decision for Ireland. It's this kind of talk that comes across as scaremongering, which should be left to Libertas.

There's an interesting article about Ireland and Germany by the Irish Times here. I wonder if I can find Our Farm on the internet?